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中文摘要：
以天津蓟县山区作为研究区域，根据泥石流形成的水动力模式，综合考虑将发生频率、24,h最大降雨量、水流流速、地形坡度、岩性、植被覆盖类型和人口密度等作为泥石流危险因子．采用地表水模型系统进行研究区域网格的划分，生成步长均值为500,m的无结构不规则三角形和四边形网格，再用Fortran程序读取生成的网格信息，得到网格中单元-通道-结点三者的关系，最后利用有限体积法进行降雨量的水动力计算，建立基于层次分析法的预报模型．最后，根据计算出的网格危险等级对蓟县2012年发生的双安泥石流进行了验证，验证结果与实际吻合，说明泥石流区域预报模型建立方法的可行性.
英文摘要：
According to the formation of debris flow of hydrodynamic model,this paper investigated the mountainousregion of Jixian County by considering frequency,maximum rainfall within24,h,flow velocity,terrainslope,geological lithology,vegetation types and population density as risk factors.The paper applied surface-watermodeling system to dividing research area into grids which were non-structural irregular triangles and quadrangleswith the mean step-size value of500,m.Then the Fortran program was used to read the generated mesh information toobtain the relationship of the element-channel-node within the grid.Finally,the rainfall hydrodynamic force wascalculated by using finite volume method to establish the forecast model based on analytic hierarchy process.The calculatedgrid danger level of the debris flow of Shuang’an in Jixian in2012was in good agreement with actual result,which verified the feasibility of establishing the regional forecast model for debris flow.
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