针对实践中涌现出的众多商业模式模仿现象,采用传染病模型探讨了商业模式扩散机制。首先分析了传染病模型对商业模式扩散问题的适用性;提出了商业模式扩散机制及相关假设,并通过系统仿真和案例研究验证了假设。结果表明:创新源相对规模越大,系统的动态性越强,达到均衡的时间越长;传染率和拒绝率的交互作用影响扩散速度和系统结构,两比例变量的相对差距受到商业模式自身性质的影响。研究结论弥补了商业模式和创新扩散理论的已有盲点,为企业商业模式创新和模仿及国家产业政策制定提供管理启示。
The diffusion of business models is a significant phenomenon with limited theoretical explanation. This paper proves the appropriateness of the Epidemic Model on the diffusion of business models, and proposes the diffusion mechanism and hypoth- eses by using the simulation and case study methodology to test the hypotheses. The results show that the bigger the size of inno- vation source, the stronger the system dynamic is and the longer the equilibrium time; the infection rate and recovery rate can af- fect the diffusion speed and equilibrium structure; and the difference between the two ratios is influenced by the nature of busi- ness models. The results fill the gaps on business model and innovation diffusion and provide suggestion for enterprises and the makers of national enterprise policies.