中文摘要：

船舶碰撞频率可用潜在碰撞船舶数与致事故系数乘积表示。以往潜在碰撞船舶数计算模型对船舶动态因素考虑较少,基于交通冲突技术,通过构建动态船舶领域模型、设计碰撞冲突判断标准算法、使用船舶碰撞冲突数代替潜在碰撞船舶数,提出一种开阔水域船舶碰撞频率模型。结果表明,台湾海峡碰撞频率高发区位于牛山岛（24°46.8＇N~25°30.0＇N）、兄弟屿（23°22.8＇N~25°49.2＇N）和厦门湾口（24°08.4＇N~24°33.6＇N）这3个海域。研究海域船舶碰撞频率为5.068 7起/年、与目标海域15年商船平均碰撞频率4.866 7起/年高度吻合。研究发现交叉冲突是台湾海峡船舶碰撞冲突主要类型,而夜间发生船舶碰撞频率2.787 0起/年,高于白天2.281 7起/年。该模型为计算船舶碰撞频率提供一种新方法,也为后续研究船舶碰撞定量风险评估提供基础数据。

英文摘要：

The frequency of vessel collision is defined as the product of vessel traffic conflicts and causation factors. In the previous studies, the dynamic effects of influencing factors on the ship domain were usually ignored. Using the traffic conflict technique, this study first proposes a dynamic ship domain model and then develops a model to estimate the vessel collision frequency in open seas. Model results show that the most collision risky areas are Niusha Island （ 24 ° 46. 8′ N - 25 °30. 0′ N ）, Xiongdi Islet （ 23° 22. 8′N- 25°49.2′N） and Xiamen Bay Waters（24°08.4′N - 24°33.6′N）. The collision frequency of the Taiwan Strait is 5. 068 7/year, which is very close to the mean value of 4. 866 7/year based on 15 years＇ historical accident data. Studies indicate that the crossing collision conflict is the major collision type in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, the vessel collision frequency during the nighttime period is slightly bigger than the daylight period. This work not only provides a new method to estimate collision frequency, but also provides a theoretical basis for the quantitative risk assessment of vessel collision in the future.