中文摘要：

为提高大中型灌区水资源管理水平,引入模糊综合评价及信息熵方法,建立了考虑降雨、径流及地下水等多水源的灌区水文干旱预警系统。预警系统以现状水文干旱评估和未来水源形势分析为两大基础,针对其中未来水源形势的非确定性,采用超越概率方法进行处理,评估给出未来多种情况下的可能干旱水平,并进入下一个计算环节,从而较大程度的避免了预测的片面性。最终整合现状干旱指标和未来形势指标形成干旱预警指标DAI,并以不同颜色灯号表示预警等级。以泾惠渠灌区水文干旱预警为例,选取典型干旱年份对预警流程及关键技术指标进行分析示例,结果表明其能够反映干旱发生发展的蠕变特性,表明该预警方法合理清晰,具有简单易用的特点。

英文摘要：

In order to improve the management level of water resources in large and medium- sized irrigation area,a hydrologic drought warning system was established considering multifactor such as the rainfall,runoff and groundwater based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and information entropy method. The early warning model based on two parts： current drought situation and future hydrology analysis. In view of the uncertainty of future hydrologic situation,the exceedance probability method was used to evaluate the variety of possible drought situations; therefore,the one- sidedness of the forecast could be avoided to large extent. The color- coded drought early warning index（ DAI） was established by integrating current drought situation index and future hydrologic situation index. Finally,taken Jinghuiqu Irrigation Area for example,a demonstration was conducted by putting the drought early warning model into practice,the results show that it can reflect the creep characteristics of the drought development,it indicates that the model is reasonable and with the characteristics of simple and easy-to- use.