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中文摘要：
苹果绵蚜是苹果上一种重要的检疫性害虫,每年给苹果产区造成严重的经济损失.预测苹果绵蚜适生性区域和影响其定殖扩散的环境因子,能够开展苹果绵蚜分布区域测报、制定有效的检疫措施并为防治决策提供依据.本研究基于最大熵算法的生态位模型MaxEnt和地理信息系统软件ArcGIS对苹果绵蚜进行适生区分析及预测,用受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）对预测模型和预测结果进行评估,并用Jackknife方法分析影响绵蚜发生的重要因子.结果表明,苹果绵蚜在我国适生范围很广,其中,辽宁、山东、河南、河北、安徽、江苏、陕西等省的适生性指数较高,对苹果绵蚜发生具有重要影响的是与温度相关的环境因子.
英文摘要：
Eriosoma lanigerum（Hausmann） is an important quarantine insect of apple tree,and usually causes serious economic losses in apple production area every year.To predict the suitable distribution area of E.lanigerum and the environmental factors affecting the insect＇s colonization and dispersal could provide references for the forecast of the insect＇s distribution area,the constitution of effective quarantine measures,and the control decisions.In this study,niche model MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to analyze and predict the suitable distribution area of E.lanigerum,ROC was used to evaluate the prediction model and the prediction results,and Jackknife analysis was made to analyze the most important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of E.lanigerum.The results showed that E.lanigerum had a wide distribution area in China,its suitable distribution index was the highest in Liaoning,Shandong,Henan,Hebei,Anhui,Jiangsu,and Shaanxi provinces,and the most important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of E.lanigerum were temperature-dependent factors.
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