中文摘要：

采用云南省香格里拉气象站55a（1958-2012）的逐年气温、降水量、绝对湿度、相对湿度和霜日数资料,引入多元最小二乘估计模型（多元OLS）、多元向量自回归模型（多元VAR）和结构方程模型,基于Morlet连续复小波（Cmor）变换的主周期数据,探索未来50a香格里拉气温等气候环境要素的定量预估模型、变化趋势及5个主要气候环境要素的相互关系。结果表明：未来50a内香格里拉的气温以0.44℃/10a的速率升高,50a后气温将升高2℃左右;降水以围绕平均值做周期振荡为主,并以14.7mm/10a的速率增多;绝对湿度以0.06 mg/L/10a的速率增大,并有明显的周期振荡;相对湿度以-0.96%/10a的速率减小,并有周期振荡;年霜日数以-2.8d/10a的速率减少,并有周期振荡。绝对湿度、相对湿度和霜日数的变化与气温和降水的变化显著相关,气温变化对湿度和霜日数的影响大于降水量的影响,气温的持续升高是除降水外其他气候要素变化的主要原因。

英文摘要：

Using main cycle data transformed from Molet continuous complex wavelet（CMOR）we explored Shangri- La＇s five main climatic and environmental factors＇（yearly temperature,precipitation,absolute huidity,relative humidity and frost days）quantitative prediction models,variation trends and multiple relations based on multiple Ordinary Least Squares（OLS）model,multiple Vector Auto-regression（VAR）modeling and Structural Equation Model（SEM）. The raw data was from the Shangri- La meteorological station in Yunnan,China from 1958 to 2012. We conclude that in next 50 years,Shangri- La＇s temperature will increase at a rate of 0.44 ℃/10 a,it will rise about 2℃ after 50 years,reaching about 9℃. Shangri- La＇s precipitation shows periodic oscillation around its mean value,increasing at a rate of 14.7mm/10 a. Shangri- La＇s absolute humidity will increase at a rate of 0.06 mg/L/10 a with obvious periodic oscillation. Shangri- La＇s relative humidity will decrease at a rate of- 0.96 %/10 a with periodic oscillation. Shangri- La＇s yearly frosty days will decrease at a rate of- 2.8 d/10 a with periodic oscillation Shangri- La＇s temperature,precipitation and frost days were dependent on temperature and precipitation;temperature＇s effect is greater than precipitation＇s;and a continuous increase in temperature is the main reason for changes in all other climatic factors,except precipitation.