中文摘要：

本文利用“中国农业可持续发展决策支持系统”分析了不同燃料乙醇发展政策可能对我国农产品价格、整体和各区域农业生产及净产值等的影响。研究结果表明：燃料乙醇发展将显著提高能源作物的农产品价格，对农业发展和农民增收将起到积极的促进作用，但对稻谷和小麦等粮食安全有一些负面影响；燃料乙醇发展对不同区域及不同农户的影响有较大差异；多数地区的农业部门都将从中受益，获益的大小主要取决于各地区在种植能源作物上的比较优势。研究也指出，未来的重点应放在非粮作物以及第二代生物燃料乙醇技术上（即用纤维素生产乙醇），并且应该提高在这些方面的科研投资水平。

英文摘要：

This paper analyzes the impacts of China＇s bioethanol production under different scenarios on domestic agricultural prices, national and regional agricultural productions and farm value added using the “Decision Support System for China＇s Sustainable Development of Agriculture”. The results show that the increase in demand for feedstock to produce bioethanol will lead to very large increases in the prices of agricultural products and farmers income. The increases in price trigger a significant rise in production of feedstocks used for bioethanol production in the cost of lower rice and wheat productions. The study also reveals that the impacts of bioethanol vary largely in different regions. The paper suggests that bioethanol production in China should be more relying on non-grain based energy crops and especially on second generation of bioethanol technologies （namely using celluloses to produce bioethanol）, and increase the research investment in those areas.