本文采用TVAR模型实证检验不同汇率制度下我国货币政策能否产生净出口的需求效应,并运用广义脉冲响应(GIRF)分析了该效应的作用强度和持续时间。实证结果表明.货币政策在不同汇率制度下均产生了净出口需求效应,但是随着汇率浮动幅度增大,货币政策的净出口需求效应出现非线性的变化。这种非线性效应主要表现为,货币供应环比增速的增长引起净出口环比增速波动的幅度在浮动汇率制度下明显大于固定汇率制度下:净出口环比增速受到货币政策冲击后在固定汇率制度下能够恢复到初始状态.而在浮动汇率制度下则一直在正负双向波动中逐渐扩大。此外,货币政策对净出口需求的有效性在固定汇率制度下仅有一年.而在浮动汇率制度下则始终存在。
This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on net export in different exchange rate regimes by utilizing the TVAR model. Further on, the intensity and duration of the effects in different exchange rate systems are examined by employing GIRF. We find that the monetary policy has effects on net export in both exchange rate regimes. In addition, the monetary policy exhibits stronger impact and nonlinear effect on net export as the exchange rate becomes floating. The nonlinear effect embodies that the fluctuation of the net export rate caused by monetary supply is much greater under the floating exchange rate regime than that under the fixed exchange rate regime. The net export may go back to the initial level under the fixed exchange rate regime while it is impossible under the floating exchange rate regime with the monetary policy shock. The effect of the monetary policy on net export lasts for only one year under the fixed exchange rate regime, much shorter than that under the floating exchange rate regime.