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中文摘要：
通过地下水电站洞室群火灾风险研究为国家地下水电站防火设计规范的修编提供依据。通过故障树分析找出引发地下式水电站火灾事故的因素，采用层次分析法分析各级指标对上级指标的影响权重，并根据专家评分法确定最底层指标。结合指标权重，运用模糊综合评价方法评价地下水电站的火灾风险。结果表明，地下式水电站的火灾风险级别为中。本研究也为其他类型水电站的火灾风险评价提供了参考。
英文摘要：
This paper has made an analysis of the main factors that arc likely to affect fire risk in the case of the underground hydropower stations. In doing so, we have made a general survey over the fire prevention design code for hydroelectric projects ; along with the case studies and expertise we have collected and worked at. Investigation that has been done by us shows that the cable system fire results mostly from the lightening, cable failure or the fire source from the outside, whereas oil system fire is mainly caused by a variety of combustible or flammable gases that are likely to get ignited by sparks or open fire, etc. As to the electrical system fire, it is mostly caused by the cable insulation damage due to various types of physical breakdown, over-voltage, failure with the electric arc or spark, with some other fire risks taking place due to some man-made reasons. In case of absence of accurate accident statistics data, the fault tree can be simplified by analyzing and attributing some certain related major factors to the given events, while neglecting some other elements in the fault tree, with due regard to the likely extemal factors （such as environmental factors）. And, finally, a hierarchical structure of the fire risk evaluation indexes of the underground hydropower stations has been proposed, with a semi-quantitative risk assessment method brought about based on the analysis of main factors of fire risks, the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation （FCE）. While AHP was chosen to calculate the impact weight of the indexes at each level, the prime quantity levels of indexes were quantified by means of expert assessment and evaluation. Combining the impact weight with the fuzzy relation matrix derived from the one-dimensional evaluation of impact indexes at each level, the expected likely level of the fire risk assessment of the underground hydropower station can be obtained by using FCE. The experimental results show that the fire risk level of underground hy
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A new analytical model for thermal stresses in multi-phase materials and lifetime prediction methods
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