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中文摘要：
依据咸阳市1986-2008年地下水监测资料和气象资料,运用灰色系统理论和数理统计方法对咸阳市的气候干燥度和地下水的变化特征及关系进行了分析。结果显示：（1）咸阳市各分区地下水位以不同速率持续下降,到2010、2011年泾河两岸黄土高原区地下水位将比2008年分别下降0.6m和0.9m;黄土台原区降低0.52m和0.81m;河流阶地区降低1m和1.3m;水位下降的主要原因是人为影响。（2）在1961-2009年间,咸阳市气候呈明显的变干趋势,且在1985年发生这种变干趋势的突变,影响着地下水位的变化。deMartonne气候干燥度和地下水埋深呈负相关关系,即气候越干燥地下水水位就越低。结果显示咸阳市地下水系统长期得不到补给恢复,希望受到重视。
英文摘要：
Based on Xianyang＇s 1986-2008 groundwater monitoring data and meteorological data, this paper analyzed the dynamic characteristics and future trend of groundwater and its relationship to climate aridity change with methods of Grey System Theory and statistical. It was found that the changes of groundwater depth declined continually with different rates in different geomorphology zones of Xianyang City. Compared with the year of 2008, the groundwater level of the Jinghe river basin＇s loess plateau zones will decline respectively by 0.6m and 0.9m till the year 2010 and 2011. The loess tableland zones will decline by 0.52m and 0.81m. The river terraces zones will decline by 1.0m and 1.3m. Human factor is the main factor for these changes. The climate aridity change in 1961-2009 was showing a trend of drought which affecting the changes of groundwater level. There are negative correlations between groundwater depth and de Martonne aridity. The results indicates that the groundwater system lack of recharge in the long-term, which seriously impacted the groundwater system dynamic equilibrium. The problem should be considered seriously.
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