中文摘要：

产业集群知识传播系统中受体企业在不同时点下整合利用新知识的成本与收益具有显著的双重不确定性,因此本文借用实物期权理论分析了集群知识传播系统中受体企业知识整合的时机选择问题,推演出了知识传播受体企业执行知识整合期权的临界值,进一步研究发现,集群知识传播系统中受体企业整合新知识可能获得收益的不确定性提高后,企业整合知识的动机变弱;而且收益的期望增长率越高,企业越倾向于执行整合知识的期权,成本的期望增长率越高,企业越倾向于等待。

英文摘要：

In the industrial cluster knowledge transfer system, the costs and benefits of new knowledge integration and utilization by accepted-enterprises at different times exhibit significant dual uncertainty. Therefore, the real option theory is applied to analyze the knowledge integration timing selection of accepted-enterprises in the industrial cluster knowledge transfer system. The critical value of knowledge integration is deduced. Further, when the uncertainty of potential profits of new knowledge integration in the industrial cluster knowledge transfer system increases, the knowledge integration motivation of accepted-enterprises will decrease. The higher the expected growth rates of benefits, the greater the likelihood of the integration of knowledge of options. The higher the expected growth rates of costs, the greater the likelihood of waiting.