中文摘要：

岩爆是深埋地下工程开挖建设过程中常见的工程地质灾害,对其发生的可能性及其烈度分级预测一直是岩石地下工程的世界性难题。针对岩爆烈度评估过程中存在的模糊性和随机性问题,建立了基于德尔菲法和正态云的综合评判模型。在系统分析影响岩爆发生的相关因素的基础上,选取岩石单轴抗压强度与抗拉强度比σc/σt、切向应力与岩石单轴抗压强度比σθ/σc、岩石脆性指数Is和弹性变形能指数Wet构建评价指标体系,通过德尔菲科学方法确定其权重系数。基于云模型理论计算各评价因子隶属于岩爆级别的云数字特征,生成正态云滴,实现了岩爆烈度与评价指标值之间的不确定映射,保留了评估过程中的随机性。最后,利用国内外典型岩爆工程实例对所建模型进行检验,其判别结果与实际岩爆等级相符,且准确率高于功效系数法和集对分析理论,表明采用云模型对岩爆烈度进行预测是可行的、有效的。该模型具有较高的准确性和可靠性,能满足工程应用需要,在深埋地下工程岩爆预测中具有良好的工程应用前景。

英文摘要：

Rockburst is a type of geologic hazards frequently occurring in the deep underground engineering construction. The prediction and classification of rockburst remains an unrsolved problem in underground rock engineering. To evaluate the rockburst intensity, a novel comprehensive evaluation model based on the normal cloud model and Delphi method is developed to overcome the issue of fuzziness and randomness in evaluating the rockburst intensity. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the controlling factors of rockburst, four factors are chosen as the indices for the intensity evaluation, including the ratio of uniaxial compressive strength and tensile strength, σc/σt, the ratio of tangential stress and uniaxial compressive strength, σθ/σc, the rock brittleness index, Is, and the elastic strain energy index, Wet. The Delphi method is adopted to determine the weighting coefficient for each evaluation index.The normal cloud model is used to calculate the cloud characteristics for each evaluation index in rockburst classification, which generates the normal cloud droplets, and the undetermined mapping between the rockburst intensity and the evaluation index are realized, keeping the randomness in the evaluation process. Finally, the proposed model is validated with a series of typical rock projects. The obtained results show a good agreement with practical rockburst classification, and the accuracy of cloud model is higher than that of the efficacy coefficient method and set pair analysis method. indicating that the normal cloud theory is applicable and effective for classifying the rockburst intensity.