中文摘要：

为研究西江径流的演变规律，运用 M-K 法对西江流域广西境内3个代表水文站1980~2010年年径流时间序列资料进行了趋势性、突变特征分析，并进一步对各代表站逐月的径流变化趋势进行分析；运用具有多分辨率功能的复 Morlet 小波分析方法对各代表站径流进行多时间尺度周期性和近期径流演变趋势研究。通过趋势性和周期性分析可知，西江干流径流呈现减少趋势；西江径流存在5、15、22 a 这3类尺度的周期变化；从2010年以后5 a 左右，西江径流将处于一个整体相对偏枯期，之后将进入一个小幅震动的丰水期。实测2010~2013年径流显示西江来水较枯。

英文摘要：

In order to investigate the evolution of Xijiang River basin, the annual runoff time series from 1980 to 2010 at three representative hydrologic stations in Guangxi province were analyzed u-sing Mann-Kendall method for their trends and the features of abrupt change, and an assay of the trends of monthly runoff at each station were made. Using a complex Morlet wavelet multi-resolution function analysis method, the multiple time scales periodicity and evolution trend of runoff of the three representative stations were studied. The results show that there is a downward trend of the runoff of Xijiang River basin, and there are 3 time scale periodic variations such as 5 a, 15 a and 22 a. There will be a low water season that lasts 5 years or so in Xijiang River basin after 2010, and then there will be a small amplitude fluctuant wet season. The records from 2010 to 2013 show that the runoff was low.