中文摘要：

使用世界银行TRI（贸易抑制指数）和NRA（名义支持率）数据库,分别在粮食作物亩均实际收益与农产品进出口贸易抑制指数之间建立动态计量模型,采用协整分析、脉冲反应函数和方差分解分析等方法进行检验。研究发现,中国农业自由化程度要远高于高收入国家,且存有＂重调产出、轻调投入＂和＂重经济效益、轻粮食安全＂等政策倾向;生产者的＂超调＂行为使得粮食生产收益成倒＂N＂型变化;长期内＂黄箱政策＂并不是收益变动的原因,并提出了政策建议。

英文摘要：

Using TRI and NRA database,this paper constructs a dynamic econometric model between acre real earnings of grain crop and TRI for import or export of agricultural products.We then analyze the effect of increasing peasant incomes of Chinese Amber Policies with cointegration analysis,impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the model.We find that there is more liberalization degree of agriculture in China than that in higher income country,and there is an inclination of ＂emphasizing output,ignoring input＂ and ＂emphasizing earnings,ignoring food security＂.Overshoot of producer makes the dynamic earnings of grain crop is a reverse ＂N＂.Chinese Amber Policies are not the factor which could affect earnings of grain crop in the long time.We put forward some policy proposal in the last.