建立贸易结构变动影响能源消耗的理论框架,运用投入产出法和两极分解法对我国1998-2009年工业部门贸易结构变化的能耗效应进行分析。将贸易中结构性因素的能耗效应分解为贸易结构变动、单位产出耗能变动和投入产出系数变动的能耗效应进行研究。结果显示,研究期内以2007年我国推行出口节能政策为分界点,在此之前贸易结构总体朝不利于能源节约的方向变动,此后则开始向有利于节能降耗的方向演变。
This paper establishes a theoretical model about trade structure change and energy consumption. Input-output method and two polar decomposi- tions are used to make empirical study on the energy consumption effect of China's industrial trade structure change from 1998 to 2009. We break down the energy consumption effects of the trade structural factors into energy consumption effects of trade structure change, change of per output energy consumption and input-out- put coefficient change. The results indicate that during the research period, before the 2007 energy saving export policy was introduced, foreign trade structure change overall does not support energy saving. While after 2007, it begins to be in support of energy saving.