中文摘要：

应用GMS-5气象卫星红外云顶亮温（TBB）资料，分析西北太平洋的热带气旋（TC）TBB、TBB的对称和非对称分量与滞后0-48hTC强度的相关关系。发现，TC眼墙附近东南侧的TBB、距TC中心半径0．8°-1．7°范围内TBB对称分量和1-10波振幅之和与0-48h的TC强度有很好的负相关关系，与滞后24h的TC强度相关极值分别达到-0．52，-0．59和-0．625。 考虑气候持续因子、天气因子及TBB因子，针对1996-2002年西北太平洋远海区域（0°-50°N，120°-155°E）热带风暴（TS）等级以上样本，建立12，24h和48h强度预报方程并进行独立样本检验。结果表明，1．0°-1．5°环域平均的TBB对12h强度预报的方差贡献位居第4，TC东南侧TBB的平均值和1．1°-1．5°范围TBB极大与极小值之差对24h强度预报的方差贡献分列第3和第5位。考虑TBB因子的回归方程对TS和强热带风暴（STS）的强度预报能力有较大提高，对12h内强度减弱15m／s以上TC的12h预报、强度稳定TC的24h预报和强度48h增强10m／s以上TC的48h预报均有所改善。

英文摘要：

Using the equivalent black body temperature （TBB） data retrieved from meteorological satellite GMS-5 in 1996- 2002, the correlation between the circular symmetric/asynmmetric component of TBB and the intensity of tropical cyclone （TC） at various time lag of 0 to 48 h is analyzed for the northwest Pacific （120° - 155°E, 0° -0°N）with landed and near-coast samples excluded. It is found that the total TBB immediately southeast of the eyewall, the circular symmetric component and the sum of the amplitudes of tangential 1 - 10 waves （SA10） of the TBB between the radii of 0.8 and 1.7 degree, were significantly/negatively correlated with the TC intensity at various time lag from 0 to 48 h, and especially their maximum 24 h-lag correlation coefficients reached - 0.52, - 0.59, and - 0.625, respectively. A statistical prediction scheme for TC intensity is then developed based on climatological, persistent, synoptic and TBB factors by stepwise regression technique. It is found that the variance contribution of the averaged TBB over the ring domain between radii of 1 and 1.5 degree from the TC center ranks the fourth in the equation for 12h TC intensity prediction, and those of the total TBB southeast of the eyewall and of the difference between maximum and minimum TBB in the ring domain between the radii of 1.1 and 1.5 degree rank the third and fifth in the 24 h TC intensity forecast equation, respectively. It is also shown that, with TBB factors included, following predictions are improved as compared to the scheme without TBB factors： 48 h intensity prediction for severe tropical storm （STS）, 12 hours intensity prediction for tropical cyclones （TC） with a weakening rate greater than 15（m/s）/（12 h）, 24 h intensity prediction for TCs with almost no intensity change, and 48 h intensity prediction for TCs intensifying faster than 10 （m/s）/（48 h）.