中文摘要：

通过分析影响在役钢筋混凝土桥梁耐久性损伤的原因,结合在役钢筋混凝土桥梁耐久性损伤的模糊性和随机性,引进了模糊概率评估模型,以在役钢筋混凝土桥梁耐久性为评估目标,建立了评估模型。将在役钢筋混凝土桥梁耐久性状况划分成4级,选取了4个影响耐久性的主要因子,并选用了梯形分布作为各影响因子的隶属函数。在模型中,还提出了模糊权重的概念,可充分考虑权重的模糊性。模糊概率模型不仅继承了经典模糊综合评判法的思想和优点,同时也克服了其在实际应用中评估影响因子权重取值的局限性,因而具有明显的合理性。运用不同的方法对实际算例进行评估,结果表明：在评估在役钢筋混凝土桥梁的耐久性方面,模糊概率模型显现出其良好的可靠性和简便性。

英文摘要：

By analyzing the reason which affect durable injury of existing reinforced concrete bridge,combined with the fuzzy and randomicity of the durable injury of existing reinforced concrete bridge,introduced a fuzzy probability model,evaluation model for durability of existing reinforced concrete bridge was established.Durable state of existing reinforced concrete bridge were divided into four grades,in this model,five factors which affect durability of existing reinforced concrete bridge were selected.The function of trapezoidal distribution was used as membership function for evaluating each factor.In order to assess the index weight scientifically and to avoid the uncertainties while determining the index weight,the fuzzy weight is introduced into this prediction model.The fuzzy probability model not only holds the merits of classical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,but also overcomes its limitations in practice.Using different methods to assess the actual examples,the results showed that：In assessing the durability of existing reinforced concrete bridge,it was demonstrated that the fuzzy probability model is excellent reliability and simplicity.