中文摘要：

20世纪80年代我国鄱阳湖流域实施造林再造林工程，该区域森林面积大幅增加。大规模植物造林可能极大地影响该区域森林碳库与碳收支的变化。因此，气候变化背景下鄱阳湖流域碳平衡对中国碳循环有重要的作用。但是我们对于该地区长时间尺度的碳平衡，特别是在未来气候变化和CO2浓度上升的条件下森林生态系统碳源／汇趋势的了解不多。本研究利用过程模型InTEC模型结合区域气候模式（RIEMS2．0）模拟的未来气候资料估算了鄱阳湖流域1981—2050年碳收支情况。1981—2000年，年NPP的快速增加主要归因于大规模的植树造林；森林土壤有机碳（0-30cm）在植树造林初期每年降低1％。同时该地区森林在过去20年期间从碳源转化为碳汇。2040—2050年森林总碳库相比较2001—2010年增加0．78PgC。基于气候变化和CO2浓度增加（A1B）背景下，鄱阳湖流域NEP趋向于稳定（20—30Tgcy^-1），除了少数年份因为干旱引发了大的碳汇损失。模拟结果同样表明水分是控制该地区NEP年际变化的主要因子而NPP的年际波动主要受到温度的影响。

英文摘要：

Afforestation projects were applied in the Poyang Lake Basin of China at the beginning of 1980s. The large-scale plantation may dramatically influence the changes in carbon storage of forests in this basin. Therefore, climate-induced variations in the carbon balance of the Poyang Lake Basin＇s forests may play an important role in the carbon cycle of China. However, we have little understanding of their long-term behavior, especially the future trend of carbon sink/source patterns under climate change and rising atmospheric CQ. The annual carbon budget of the Poyang Lake Basin＇s forests during 1981-2050 was estimated by using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon-budget model （InTEC） coupled with projected climate change simulated by Regional Integrated Environmental Model System （RIEMS 2.0）. During 1981-2000, the rapid increment of annual NPP in this basin was possible due to large plantation. Soil organic carbon storage （0-30cm） of forests generally decreased by 1.0% per year at the beginning of plantation. Moreover, forests in this basin converted from carbon source in 1980s to carbon sink in 1990s. By 2040-2050, total carbon stocks of forest ecosystems will increase by 0.78Pg C, compared to recent years （2001-2010）. Under future climate and CQ concentration in AIB scenario, NEP of forests in Poyang Lake Basin lean to keep relative stable （20-30Tg C y-i） because of old forests except for some years induced by extreme droughts. Our results also showed that prediction of NEP of forests in Poyang Lake Basin was controlled by water limitation; in contrast, temperature was the main factor on inter- annual variability of NPP.