中文摘要：

水资源适应性管理理论和气候变化对策研究都将脆弱性分析作为对策研究的一部分,并认为适应对策应该具有改善系统脆弱性的能力;然而目前的水资源对策研究中主要关注适应对策实施的经济、环境等影响,而关于适应对策实施导致的区域系统脆弱性变化的分析较为缺乏.本文认为在研究水资源适应对策时,应该综合考虑对策实施引发的经济、社会等具体影响和区域脆弱性的变化,将适应对策改善系统脆弱性的能力纳入对策分析和评价的标准之中.因此,本文首先定性分析了水资源适应对策如何对区域系统脆弱性产生影响,然后构建了对策影响模拟模型,用于估测适应对策的具体影响和对区域系统脆弱性的改善能力;通过综合分析考虑水资源适应对策的影响,可为提供水资源适应性管理提供参考依据.设计三类水资源适应对策,用江西省为实例进行模拟分析,结果显示每项适应对策的影响都具有多样性和传导性;提高水资源要素价格、减少用水补贴和推动技术进步均能提高用水效率、控制经济社会发展用水总量,从而通过减少水资源能开发利用对自然系统的压力、提高人类经济社会的适应能力,综合缓解系统脆弱性.但不同对策具体影响有差异,各有不足之处,且由于区域系统和水资源问题的复杂性,不太可能在短期内靠单一对策迅速改善区域系统状态.因此,应该长期实施“节流”的水资源适应对策,重点提高农业用水效率,综合使用经济手段和技术手段促进用水效率提高和水资源优化配置,控制用水需求增长;同时保持经济稳定增长,通过提高人类适应能力,逐渐改善区域系统脆弱性,实现可持发展.

英文摘要：

Facing increasing uncertainty caused by global change,water resources adaptive management theory mentions that vulnerability analysis is an important point of adaptive strategies research,and should be adopted while making adaptive water strategy decision;in the long term,the adaptive water strategy should improve the human＇ s ability to adapt nature and social change,and reduce the vulnerability of region system.However,the current adaptive water strategy research pays more attention on the economic and environmental impact; there is fewer researches on the system vulnerability change caused by adaptive strategy.This paper considers adaptive water strategies＇ impact on system vulnerability as an important point of vulnerability analysis; the capability to ameliorate system vulnerability should also be one of criteria while making strategy decision.This paper first analyzes adaptive water strategies＇ economic and social impacts on a region system,and how the adaptive water strategy changes the system vulnerability from pressure,sensitive and adaptability dimensions.Then a water resources computable general equilibrium model and vulnerability assessment model are built to simulate the adaptive water strategy impacts and the change of vulnerability.Adopting this method,adaptive water strategy choice could be made by considering both probable economic and social impact and its effect on system vulnerability.Then taking Jiangxi Province as an example,paper sets three sorts of strategy with 6 different scenarios; three sorts of strategy in this paper are adjusting the water resources price,reducing subsidised water and promoting water-using technology progress strategy.Three sorts of strategy which are under the same water conservation target are set to verify the diversity and difference among policies.In order to compare the impacts of different strategy intensity,each sorts of strategy contains two scenarios with different strategy intensity.The simulation reveals that,first,the water adaptive strategy may bo