中文摘要：

为提高矿区开采过程中地表沉降安全性,研究其具有复杂非线性特征的沉降规律.以某矿区重点区域的沉降变化为例,通过分形理论的R/S分析法计算不同监测点的变形时间序列的Hurst指数,根据Hurst指数的值域划分,对矿山重点区域的沉降趋势及其强度进行了预测,并将预测结果和实测值进行了对比.研究表明：该矿区重点区域8个沉降监测点沉降序列的Hurst指数最小为0.894 9,8个监测点的沉降趋势与历史沉降趋势之间呈现出较强的持续性,即矿区重点区域的沉降趋势将减弱,且减弱趋势较为明显,这与同期的沉降变化趋势是相一致的.

英文摘要：

In order to improve the settlement safety of earth surface during mining,the complex nonlinear settlement regularity are studied. According to the settlement of a certain mining important area,we calculate the Hurst index of different monitoring deformation time series by using the R/S analysis method based on fractal theory. Based on the range of the Hurst index,subsidence trend of mining important area and its intensity is forecasted,and the predicted results and the measured values are compared. Results show that the Hurst index of the sedimentation sequence of the eight settlement monitoring points in the key area of the mine is 0.8949,and the settlement trend of the eight monitoring points shows a strong continuity with the historical settlement trend. In other words,the settlement trend of the key area will be weakened,and the weakening trend is more obvious,which is consistent with the trend of the same period of sedimentation changes.