中文摘要：

鞍千矿排石（土）场形成的坡体与一般的边坡不同,坡体形态复杂,碎石与土混杂,且分布不均匀,土体的参数重度、内聚力和内摩擦角在空间上变异较大,并且坡体有软弱层面存在。通过实验、现场统计等方式研究这些参数,发现它们基本满足正态分布,并给出了概率统计特性和概率分布。用Bishop方法分别计算3类稳定系数,既无条件最小稳定系数、滑动块体达到一定规模的最小稳定系数（危害性大）和滑动面通过软弱面的稳定系数,通过蒙特卡洛法得到了这些稳定系数的概率分布。分别计算了排石（土）场有代表性3个剖面的3个类型稳定系数的概率分布函数,进行了可靠性分析,并给出了预警等级。

英文摘要：

The dump slope in Anqian mine is different from common slope,where its shape is complex,the gravel and soil are mixed,and the distribution is not uniform. The parameters of soil weight,cohesion and internal friction angle show larger spatial variability,and soft layer exist in the slope. These parameters are basically satisfied with the normal distribution,and its probability parameters and probability distribution are given through experiments and field statistics. With the Bishop method,three kinds of stability coefficient were calculated,that is,minimum stability coefficient without condition,minimum stability coefficient when sliding block reaching a certain scale,stability coefficient when sliding surface passing through weak plane respectively. The probability distribution of the stability coefficient is obtained by Monte Carlo Method. These probability distribution functions of stability coefficient are calculated about three representative sections and three kinds of stability coefficients.Their reliability was analyzed,and the related warning level was given.