中文摘要：

水资源有效利用在 Tarim 是生态的改进和经济开发的关键河盆。在整个河盆分析水资源利用和它的变化趋势是必要的。在八个气象学的车站和十五个水文学车站基于监视数据和形成，时间系列的方法，回归分析被用于在特别在源流和主流的区域分析水资源利用和变化趋势最近 10 年。量的结果显示源流区域的流入在过去的 40 年里有一个增加的趋势到不同程度。增加趋势的流量从 1994 ～ 2002 是更重要的，它证明在源流的水资源条件在一个优点。然而，与 25 的体积在水的条件下面增加#

英文摘要：

Water resources efficient utilization is the key to ecological improvement and economic development in Tarim River Basin. It is necessary to analyze the water resources utilization and its variation tendency in the whole river basin. Based on the monitored data and formation at eight meteorological stations and fifteen hydrological stations, the method of time series, regression analysis are applied to analyzing the water resources utilization and variation trend in the headstreams and mainstream areas especially in recent 10 years. The quantitative results indicate that inflows of the headstream areas have an increasing trend to different extent in the past 40 years. The runoff increasing trend is more significant from1994 to 2002, which show the water resources condition in the headstreams is at an advantage. However, under the condition of water increase with the volume of 25×10^8 m^3 in headstreams in recent 10 years, the mainstream water flowing from the headstreams has increased less than 0.9985×10^8 m^3. In addition, the runoff at the different hydrologic stations along the Tarim River has a significant linear de- creasing trend. It is shown that the degraded trend of ecological environment in the mainstream areas hardly changes even if the Tarim River Basin is in the special water period for ten consecutive years.