中文摘要：

根据被动声纳工作原理，构建被动声纳探测水下目标物概率数学模型。利用声学调查实测数据，综合考虑传播损失、环境噪声、和水文环境分布及季节变化，研究温跃层垂直分布及季节变化对声纳检测概率的影响。结果表明：温跃层对被动声纳影响巨大，逆温跃层环境中，声纳检测概率从海表向下逐渐减小；正温跃层对声纳总的影响与逆温跃层相反，在正温跃层上界，检测概率从表层向下先减小后增大；逆温跃层对被动声纳检测概率的影响随目标物与声纳距离的增大而增大，正温跃层影响相反。

英文摘要：

Based on the principle of passive sonar, the mathematical models of passive sonar detection probability was built up. Using acoustic experiment data, taking all-around factors （transmission loss, environment noise, and oceanography conditions and its seasonal variability） into consideration, the effects of the thermocline vertical distribution and seasonal variability to sonar detection probability was studied. The results show thatthe thermocline affects the Sonar function greatly. Under the conditions of negative thermoeline, the detection probability decreases from the sea surface downwards; the whole variability tendency in positive thermocline is opposite to the former, and in the layer above the positive thermocline, the detection probability decreases first and the increases downwards; the effects of negative thermocline to the passive sonar increase with increasing distance between detecting object and the sonar, but the effects of positive thermocline is opposite to the former.