中文摘要：

联合重力恢复和气候探测任务（gravity recovery and climate experiment,GRACE）确定的陆地水储量变化以及降水测量卫星任务（tropical rainfall measuring mission satellite,TRMM）提供的降水观测数据,探测局部地区发生洪水的可能性,是一种非常有用的遥测方法。本文提出了一种改进的方法来探测阿富汗陆地水储量能力及其发生洪水的可能性。首先,根据GRACE数据确定的陆地水储量变化获取改进的水储量不足,进而估计阿富汗水储量能力;其次,联合TRMM降水数据,建立阿富汗洪水因子模型;最后,将阿富汗洪水因子结果与中国气象局国家气候中心观测图进行对比。结果表明,洪水因子与中国气象局国家气候中心观测结果基本吻合,并从时间和空间角度真实地反应了阿富汗地区发生的洪水。因此,联合GRACE和TRMM卫星观测数据可探测阿富汗发生洪水的可能性,并为研究区域洪水预警提供了新的有利工具。

英文摘要：

Terrestrial water storage anomaly from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE）and precipitation observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite（TRMM）are combined and applied to assess regional flood potential in Afghanistan.The results show that this is a useful remote-sensing method to improve estimates of terrestrial water storage capacity and flood potential.The improved monthly storage deficit variable obtained from the terrestrial water storage anomaly from GRACE was used to assess the terrestrial water storage capacity.A flood potential index model was established by combining it with TRMM.The results were compared with those from National Climate Center of China（NCCC）,showing that the experimental flood potential index for Afghanistan was consistent with the NCCC data and accurate from the perspective of time and space.The proposed combination method using GRACE and TRMM,can effectively estimate the flood potential in Afghanistan,and provides a useful new tool for regional flood warnings.