中文摘要：

基于生态足迹和生态承载力理论,对2000-2014年新疆人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力、万元GDP生态足迹、生态协调系数的动态变化进行分析,运用灰色GM（1,1）预测模型预测新疆2020年、2025年人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力、万元GDP生态足迹。结果显示：2000-2014年新疆人均生态足迹呈逐年上升趋势,从2000年的1.699 3hm2上升到2014年的4.100 5 hm2,年均增幅为5.86%。新疆人均生态承载力基本保持在1.400 3～1.585 2 hm2,且有逐年缓慢减小的趋势。人均生态足迹快速增长,人均生态承载力缓慢减小,造成生态赤字逐年扩大,人均赤字额由2000年的0.232 9 hm2扩大到2014年的2.700 2 hm2,赤字率由2000年的15.88%上升到2014年的192.82%。资源利用效益水平不断提高,生态协调度不断下降。预测结果表明：2020年新疆人均生态足迹将上升到6.496 4 hm2,2025年将达到9.586 4 hm2。2020年人均可利用生态承载力预计下降到1.294 7 hm2,2025年为1.212 5 hm2。万元GDP生态足迹2020年下降到0.649 9 hm2,2025年预计为0.478 0 hm2。基于此,提出降低化石能源消费比例,控制人口增长,提高土地产出效率是缓解新疆生态赤字的有效途径。

英文摘要：

Based on the theory of ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity, the dynamic change of per capita ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity, ten thousand yuan per capita GDP and ecological coordination coefficient from 2000 to 2014 in Xinjiang are ana- lyzed, and the grey GM （ 1, 1 ） prediction model is used to predict the per capita ecological footprint, ecological capacity, ecological foot- print of ten thousand yuan GDP per capita of Xinjiang in 2020 and 2025. The results show that： from 2000 to 2014, per capita ecological footprint had an upward trend in Xinjiang, and rose from 1.699 3 hm2 in 2000 to 4.100 5 hm2 in 2014 with the average annual growth of 5.86%; per capita ecological carrying capacity in Xinjiang maintains between 1.400 3 and 1.585 2 hm2, and keeps slow decreasing trend year by year; quick growth of per capita ecological footprint and slow decreasing of per capita ecological carrying capacity have caused the ec- ological deficit expanding year by year, the per capita deficit expanded from 0.232 9 hm2 in 2000 to 2.700 2 hm2 in 2014, the deficit rose from 15.88% in 2000 to 192.82% in 2014; the resource utilization efficiency is increased and the ecological coordination degree is decreased. The prediction results show that the per capita ecological footprint in Xinjiang will rise to 6.496 4 hm2 in 2020 and will reach 9.586 4 hm2 in 2025; the per capita ecological carrying capacity is expected to fall to 1.294 7 hm2 in 2020 and to 1.212 5 hm2 in 2025; the ecological foot- print of ten thousand yuan GDP will drop to 0.649 9 hm2 in 2020 and to 0.478 0 hm2 in 2025. So it is put forward that reducing fossil energy consumption ratio, controlling population growth and improving the efficiency of land output are effective ways to alleviate the ecological deficit.