中文摘要：

研究目的：探索一种基于GIS空间情景分析技术的基本农田保护区规划环境影响评价方法。研究方法：在GIS空间情景分析的基础上，提出基本农田保护区规划环境影响评价方法，并通过上海市实践验证该方法的可行性。研究结果：该方法可以在现有基本农田保护区规划方案的基础上，充分利用GIS的空间分析功能设定不同的环境影响评价情景，并通过对各情景下环境影响的定量比较分析，快速有效地评价基本农田保护区规划方案的科学性和合理性。研究结论：该方法评价结果定量直观，具有一定的推广应用价值。

英文摘要：

The purpose of this study is to develop a GIS （Geography Information System ）-based scenario analysis approach in order to effectively conduct the Environmental Impact Assessment （EIA） on the Primary Farmland Protection Area （PFPA） planning. Shanhai was selected as the case study area. The results showed that the GIS-based scenarios analysis approach is useful for the implementation of the EIA on PFPA in Shanghai. It is mostly due to its effective scenario setting ability and the quantitative assessment ability, supporting by the powerful GIS techniques in the spatial analysis. It is concluded that quantitative and visual result can be obtained through our approach, which is valuable to be widely used in the EIA on PEPA planning.