中文摘要：

以北京市大红门排水片为例,构建基于SWMM（Storm Water Management Model）的城市雨洪模型,并基于GLUE方法（Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation）对模型参数的不确定性进行了分析。结果表明,所建城市雨洪模型能够较好的模拟区域的雨洪过程。在模型参数中,管道曼宁系数、不透水区洼蓄量以及河道曼宁系数的不确定性对模型结果的影响较为显著。GLUE方法能够在分析模型结果不确定性的同时给出敏感性参数,为城市雨洪模型的参数率定和进一步研制提供了有效工具。

英文摘要：

Based on the storm water management model（SWMM）, an urban rainfall runoff model was established in Dahongmen drainage area of Beijing.The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation（GLUE） method was chosen to analyze both the model un-certainty and parameter sensitivity. The results show that the proposed model is capable of simulating the urban rainfall runoff pro-cess. The manning roughness coefficient of conduit, the depression storage of impervious surfaces and the manning roughness coeffi-cient of river, whose uncertainty are notable, have more influence on the model results than others. The analysis results can provide information for further development and parameter estimation of the urban rainfall runoff models.