证券分析师盈余预测准确性的影响因素及证券分析师盈余预测经济后果的研究引起了国内外学者的关注。基于沪深两市A股2011年和2012年证券分析师盈余预测数据,研究证券分析师预测偏差对审计质量及审计质量对证券分析师预测偏差的影响,结果发现:证券分析师预测的偏差越大,公司高管越有倾向购买审计意见,降低审计质量;年度报告的盈余管理程度越高,证券分析师预测的偏差越大,并且向上盈余管理程度加大证券分析师预测的正向偏差,即实际每股收益大于预测每股收益,证券分析师预测过于悲观;向下盈余管理程度加大证券分析师预测的负向偏差,即实际每股收益小于预测每股收益,证券分析师预测过于乐观。
The research on factors of stock analyst's earnings forecast accuracy and economic consequences of analyst's earnings forecast has attracted the attention of scholars at home and abroad. Based on the A-share analyst' s earnings fore- cast data of 2011 and 2012 in the two stock exchanges of Shanghai and Shenzhen, the paper studies both the impacts of stock analyst's forecast deviation on audit quality and the impacts of audit quality on stock analyst's forecast deviation. The findings are as follows: the greater the analyst's forecast deviation is, the more inclined the company executive is to purchase audit opinion, which lowers audit quality; the higher the degree of earnings management is in annual report, the greater the analyst' s forecast deviation is, and upward earnings management degree increases analyst' s positive fore- cast deviation, that' s to say, the actual earnings per share are greater than the forecast earnings per share and analyst' s forecast is too pessimistic; and downward earnings management degree increases analyst's negative forecast deviation, that's to say, the actual earnings per share are less than the forecast earnings per share and analyst's forecast is too opti- mistic.