中文摘要：

针对大型复杂建设项目中CPM计划与项目实际进展状况严重脱离的问题,应用系统动力学方法,将诸多影响项目进展的因素纳入到统一的系统框架内。以识别系统内各要素之间构成的主要反馈回路为基础,构建了包括建设过程子系统、范围子系统、资源管理子系统、目标子系统和项目表现子系统五个子系统的大型复杂建设项目计划模型。实证研究结果表明,该模型较好地体现了系统内部各要素之间的复杂关系,并且与CPM计划相比,基于模型的项目计划较好地反映了项目的实际进展状况,大幅提高了计划的有效性和合理性。

英文摘要：

Aiming at the problem that CPM-based plans of large complex construction projects are divorced from real projects progresses,multiple factors affecting projects processes were integrated in a systematic framework by system dynamics.The main causal feedback loops linking each element in the system were indentified,based on which a construction project planning model,including construction process subsystem,scope subsystem,resource subsystem,target subsystem and project performance subsystem was developed.The empirical research results indicate that the model could capture the complex inter-relations of elements within the system,simulated plans based on the model could reflect real construction processes better than CPM-based plans.