经济增长和能源节约需要统筹兼顾,在促进经济增长的同时,还应减少能源消耗。本文以甘肃省工业部门24个细分产业为研究对象,首先,分析了各产业的能耗比重及其变化情况,发现能源消耗集中在六大高耗能产业,并且其比重有进一步扩大的趋势;其次,应用能耗产出弹性分析了能源消耗与产业产值增量变化之间的相对关系,重点评价了六大高耗能产业的可持续状态;然后,应用改进型结构分解法分析了部门结构变化和部门强度变化在工业部门能源强度降低中所起的作用,并通过进一步分解产品结构变化和产品强度变化对部门强度变化的影响,还原了部门结构变化对工业部门能源强度降低的真实作用;最后,结合甘肃省经济发展和能源消耗的现状提出了节约能源的重点方向,并总结了应用改进型结构分解法分析产品结构和产品强度变化可能存在的问题。
Economic growth and energy saving need to be integrated with the promotion of economic growth and reduction of energy consumption. In this paper, the energy consumption of 24 sub-industries in the industrial sector of Gansu Province during the period 2001-2008 was studied. First, the proportion of energy consumption for each sub-industry and its changes was analyzed. Second, the output elasticity of energy consumption was applied to analyze the relative relationship between incremental changes of energy consumption and industrial output value, focusing on evaluation of the sustainable state of several energy-intensive sub-industries. Then, the improved structure decomposition method was used to analyze the role of sector structural change and sector energy intensity change on industrial energy intensity change. By further decomposition of changes in product mix and product intensity on sector intensity change, the real role of sector structural change on industrial energy intensity change was identified. The main contribution of this study was that it was not only specified to each sub-industry in the industrial sector, but also to product level taking the oil processing sub-industry as an example. Data used in this study were collected from Gansu Statistical Yearbook for each study year and survey work for the special plan of energy conservation in Gansu Province for 'Twelfth Five Years'. Results show that energy consumption of the industrial sector concentrated primarily in six energy-intensive sub-industries, and exhibited a further expanding trend. With increasing economic development and social progress, the conflict between energy supply and demand will be intensified, achieving the purpose of energy saving by sector restructuring, which was clearly inconsistent with the facts of Gansu Province. It was more appropriate to reduce energy consumption by improving energy efficiency for each sub-industry. As only the industry of electricity and heat production and supply was under sustainable state, the ener