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江河源区达日县近50年气候变化的多尺度分析
  • ISSN号:1000-0585
  • 期刊名称:《地理研究》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
  • 作者机构:[1]青海师范大学生命与地理科学学院,西宁810008, [2]北京大学环境学院,北京100871
  • 相关基金:973项目-青藏高原环境变化及其对全球变化的响应与适应对策(2005CB422000)资助.
中文摘要:

利用墨西哥帽小波对达日县1956~2004年共588个月的气温和降水数据进行多尺度分析,揭示了达日县气候变化多时间尺度的复杂结构,分析了不同时间尺度下降水和气温序列的变化周期和突变点,并确定了各序列中存在的主周期。结果表明:达日县气温和降水的变化趋势与青藏高原以及江河源区气候总体变化基本一致,局部存在较明显的滞后反应,小尺度的变化嵌套在较大尺度的复杂背景之中,不同时间尺度下突变的年份有所差异,小波分析存揭示气候峦化的名尺度构到和主周期方面具有明显的优势。

英文摘要:

Wavelet analysis, known as "Mathematical Microscope", has become a new mathematical approach in recent 20 years, being applied widely in many fields. Especially, with the significant advantage of characteristic of variable scale, it is suitable and effective enough to demonstrate the multi-scale traits of climate change, such as temporal series of temperature and precipitation. Accordingly, in this paper, Mexican Hat Wavelet is used to analyze the multi-scale characteristics of the climate change in Dari County, based on the temperature and precipitation of instrument data for 588 months during 1956-2004. Consequently, the periods and turning points of temperature and precipitation series in different time-scale are revealed, and the primary periods determined are 3 years or 4 years in a small scale and 16 years in a large scale. Meanwhile, the wavelet coefficients patterns exhibit a probable increasing trend in temperature and humidity in the following years. In the past 50 years, the temperature climbed to peak values for 3 times with the maximum at the beginning of the 21st century, and the precipitation is 2 times with the maximum in the early years of the 1980s. In general, the tendency of temperature and precipitation in Dari County is approximately consistent with that on the Tibetan Plateau and the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers except for some local lags in several periods. Changes in underdecadal scales are nested into complicated background in larger scales. The turning points varied along with the time-scale. According to the above analysis, we can conclude that there is a significant advantage of wavelet analysis in revealing the multi-scale characteristics, the primary period, and forecasting the trend of climate change in the following years.

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期刊信息
  • 《地理研究》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
  • 主编:刘毅
  • 地址:北京安外大屯路甲11号
  • 邮编:100101
  • 邮箱:dlyj@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 电话:010-64889584
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1000-0585
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-1848/P
  • 邮发代号:2-110
  • 获奖情况:
  • 中国地理优秀期刊
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国人文社科核心期刊,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:45649