中文摘要：

该文提出一种“车-路-网”模式下电动汽车充电负荷时空预测模型。首先通过建立单体电动汽车充电模型和计及交通网络拓扑特性、速度-流量实用关系模型及区域属性特征的道路交通模型，来模拟城市区域路网约束下电动汽车的交通行驶特性；进而运用交通起止点分析法来精确模拟电动汽车行驶路径，采用蒙特卡洛方法对各类电动汽车的充电负荷进行时空预测；最后将城市路网及充电负荷归算至对应配电网节点，通过序列化潮流算法来评估大规模电动汽车接入后对配电网的影响。以某市主城区部分实际道路情况为例，预测充电负荷时空分布，分析城市区域电动汽车充电负荷整体分布特性及其对33节点配电网潮流的影响，结果表明该文所提方法现实有效。

英文摘要：

A method for the forecast of charging load of electric vehicles （EVs） under ＂EVs-Traffic-Distribution＂ （ETD） system was developed to precisely manifest the spatial-temporal characteristics of large scale EV charging load in urban area and to evaluate the impact of the load on urban distribution network. An EV model with charging characteristics, a traffic network model with urban road topology and a classic velocity-capacity model were introduced to provide the spatial-temporal driving routes and velocity. With the above information, origin-destination （OD） analysis was used to simulate the mobility of each EV. And, Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to estimate the, EVs＇ spatial-temporal charging load characteristics over a day. By allocating the charging load of each EV to the nearest node in the distribution network, sequential power flow was conducted to evaluate the impact of charging load on the distribution network. A 29-node urban area combined with the geographic information and a 33-node distribution system was selected to validate the proposed method. Simulation results demonstrate its effectiveness.