中文摘要：

气候对农业生产起着决定性作用。温室效应会使地球升温，从而引起全球变暖，将对农业产生深远影响。本研究使用一个CGE全球模型GTAP来预测全球变暖对农业贸易的影响，结果显示高纬度地区将获益，而低纬度地区将受损。北美小麦出口的重心将从美国转向加拿大，中国将取代东盟成为主要的稻米出口国。农业经济占GDP很大比重的发展中国家将受到更大的负面冲击。

英文摘要：

Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. The concentration of green - house gases is increasing. The effects of green-house due to green - house gases will increase the average temperature on the earth. Global warming from the greenhouse effects will influence agriculture significantly. This research uses a global model of CGE-GTAP to explore the possible economic effects of global warming on agriculture. High latitude regions will benefit, and low latitude regions will be harmed. The center of the North American wheat exports will be turned from U. S. A. to Canada. China will replace ASEAN and become the main rice exporter. Because agriculture still takes very big proportion of employment and GDP, developing countries will suffer great negative impact.