农用地分等成果为耕地综合产能核算提供了新思路,为耕地整理质量评价提供新方法。以海河冲积平原区为例,基于农用地分等成果,通过抽样补充调查,依据自然等指数与理论抽样样点构建理论产能核算模型,利用等指数与可实现抽样样点构建了可实现产能核算模型,结合近3年(2003年~2005年)的粮食实际产量,并进行了综合产能核算。结果表明:全区耕地理论产能为2970×10^4t,可实现产能为2260×1^4。t,远高于近3年1430×10^4t的年均粮食实际产量,表明目前海河冲积平原区粮食安全的耕地资源保障程度较高。通过分析耕地综合产能、利用强度及其增产潜力,将研究区耕地利用划分为核心保护区、优化提升区和重点整理区,并提出相应的利用对策。
The potential grain productivity in China and the future changing tendency of its supply-demand relations have aroused widespread concerns from domestic and international theoretical researchers as well as policy makers. Industrialization and urbanization would increase the demand for grain, but could reduce cultivated land and water resources, which would consequently affect the supply of grain. To prevent cultivated land from diminishing and improve the integrated productive capacity have become the rational choice for our grain development strategy at the beginning of the new century. The results of agricultural land classification provide a new consideration to calculate the comprehensive production capacity of cultivated land and a new approach to evaluate the consolidation quality of cultivated land. Taking alluvial plain area of Haihe river as an example, based on agricultural land classification and gradation results, we employed supplementary sampling points, indices of natural quality and land use to construct theoretical production capacity model, while using indices of natural quality and sampling points to construct realizable production capacity models. Comprehensive production capacity was obtained from statistical data of actual grain yields of three years(2003-2005). The results showed that theoretical and realizable production capacity in this region were 29.7 × 10^6 ton and 22.6 × 10^6 ton respectively, which were higher than the annual average yield of actual grain production, which was 14.3 ×10^6 ton. The large gap between theoretical and practical production capacity secured a high degree of cultivated land recources for grain security at present. Through combined analysis of comprehensive production capacity, production growth potential and utilization intensity, we divided the alluvial plain area of Haihe river into three regions: key protection region, optimization region and major consolidation region. The major consolidation areas are mainly in the alluvial plain area, the sout