中文摘要：

基于金融危机和全身的风险累积的因袭的事实，这篇论文从内长的金融周期的观点构造一个新金融不平衡索引(FII ) 并且在中国的宏金融的分析估计它的申请。结果证明 FII 是不仅一个有效索引在中国的经济检测金融不平衡骑车，而且比的也是更精确的并且比常规指示物一个主角玩更多，例如消费者物价指数，金融条件索引和购买经理指示物。FII 能被用作有效指示物到的实验分析表演测量全身的金融风险，并且能向决策者和市场参加者提供有用信息做适当决定。

英文摘要：

Based on the stylized facts of financial crises and systemic risk accumulation, this paper constructs a new financial imbalance index （FII） from the perspective of endogenous financial cycles and assesses its application in China＇s macro-financial analysis. The results show that the FII is not only an effective index to detect financial imbalances in China＇s economic cycles, but is also more accurate than and plays more of a leading role than conventional indicators, such as the consumer price index, the financial conditions index and the purchasing managers indicator. Empirical analysis shows that the FII can be used as an effective indicator to measure systemic financial risk, and can provide policy-makers and market participants with useful information to make appropriate decisions.