中文摘要：

本文选取2007—2008年月度数据，实证研究了我国对前十大出口对象国（地区）的出口总额与这些国家（地区）的人均GDP、股市总市值、失业率，以及人民币实际有效汇率之间的关系。结果表明：在国际金融危机背景下，这些国家（地区）的人均GDP下降和失业率增加，对我国出口贸易的负面影响很大；这些国家（地区）股市总市值的变化和人民币实际有效汇率的波动，对我国出口贸易的负面影响较小。这些国家（地区）实体经济的恶化，是我国出口贸易持续下降的主要原因。

英文摘要：

Based on the monthly statistic data between 2007 and 2008, the paper studies the relationship between China＇s export amount to the top ten export -targeted countries （areas） and these countries＇ （areas＇） per capita of GDP, market capitalization, unemployment rate and real effective exchange rate of RMB. The results show that against the background of international financial crisis, the decline in these countries＇ （areas＇） per capita GDP and the increase in the unemployment rate have a greatly negative effect on China＇s expert; while the change in these countries＇ （areas＇） market capitalization and the fluctuation in real effective exchange rate of RMB have little negative effect on China＇s export. So the deterioration of these countries＇ （areas＇） real economy is the main reason of the constant decline in China＇s export.