基于省级面板数据(Panel-data),以“五年计划”为视角,分析了1978-2009年7个“五年计划”期中国地区差距时空演变特征。研究表明:1)中国地区差距1978-2009年呈先缩小后扩大再缩小的波动特征,整体呈缩小趋势;近30年来中国地区差距演化由地区内差距为主转向以地区间差距为主,地区间差距扩大是全国地区差距扩大的主要动因;2)东部地区内部差距呈缩小趋势,中、西部地区内部差距均呈扩大趋势;3)中国城乡差距呈现明显的“U”型演化特征,以“八五”计划期为拐点,差距不断扩大,并呈现进一步扩大的趋势;4)东部地区城乡差距总体呈扩大趋势,大部分省市城乡差距变化都较剧烈;中部地区城乡差距呈现明显“U”型特征,各省市除“七五”计划期呈缩小趋势外,其他计划期城乡差距均呈扩大趋势;西部地区城乡差距以1983年为拐点,呈先缩小后逐步扩大的趋势。
The regional disparity has been the focus of socio-economic development. This paper analyzed China's regional disparity from 1978 to 2009 based on the provincial panel data in five-year plan perspective. The results were: 1)China's regional disparity showed redueing-enlargin-reducing fluctuation features from 1978 to 2009, the overall trend was reducing; China's re- gional disparity has transformed into inter-regional disparity from intra-regional disparity in the past 30 years, and the expanding inter-regional disparity is the main motivation to enlarge the whole regional disparity; 2)Among three regions, the internal disparity trend of east region was reducing, meanwhile the internal disparity trend of both middle and west region was enlarging; 3)China% urban-rural disparity showed the obvious U curve evolutionary characteristics, which was enlarging with the eighth five-year plan period for the inflection point, and enlarged for further; 4)Urban-rural disparity showed general tendency to expand in east region, most provincial urban-rural disparity changed greatly. Urban-rural disparity of middle region showed significant U curve features, provincial urban-rural disparity were enlarging on trends except the seventh five-year plan period. As a turning point in 1983, urban-rural disparity in west region was reducing firstly, then gradually expand in further trend.