在金融体系中,不同机构之间存在着错综复杂的财务关系,从而形成了一个庞杂的金融网络.本文提出金融网络的一个风险传播模型,通过模拟单个机构破产所带来的风险传染效应来研究金融体系的系统风险,这与传统的孤立考察单个机构的风险再将所有机构的风险加总的研究方法不同.在文章中我们考察了不同网络结构、不同网络规模以及不同节点对于系统稳定性的影响,并且将模型应用在实证数据.为更好地理解金融体系系统风险提供了帮助.
Financial institutions have now become more and more interconnected,and the financial system has become a complex network-the financial network.A risk contagion model for the financial network was proposed to study financial systemic risks.The change of systemic risk was found to be non-monotonous,but rather showed peak points at times of heated economic activities.A method to test system ability to take risks was developed.Suggestions for governments to guide and rescue economy were given.