中文摘要：

针对周志军等建立的聚合物驱驱替特征模型较为复杂、应用不方便，且后续水驱阶段预测偏差较大的问题，将该模型用麦克劳林级数展开，推导出d（Wp-aNp^2）jdNp与Np在直角坐标系下存在线性关系。提出了将该线性表达式积分求解，就能得到Wp与NP的三次多项式关系式，并结合大庆油田北一二排西区块详细说明了求解过程。该关系式不但可以用来预测聚合物驱区块的含水率和可采储量，而且还能够预测出单井在其控制范围内的可采储量。将预测值与实际值进行比较，无论区块还是单井，相对误差均小于5％。

英文摘要：

Considering the complicity and higher predicted water cut in the polymer flooding model developed by Zhou Zhijun, expanding this model by Maclaurin series, a linear relation was obtained between d（Wp-aNp^3）/dNp and Np in Cartesian system. Then the relation between Wp and Np can be obtained by solving the linear formula through integral. The detailed solving process was illustrated using north-Ⅰ and Ⅱ blocks in Daqing Oilfield. The formula can be used to predict the water cut and recoverable reserves of blocks with polymer flooding, as well as the well＇s recoverable reserves in its drainage area. The comparison between the predicted and the actual value indicate that the relative error is less than 5% in block and well level. This method is simple and better practical application.