灾害损失评估是灾害风险管理、科学防灾减灾规划的基础。除了直接经济损失外,间接经济损失是反映灾害影响强度及社会经济系统脆弱性的重要指标。经济越发达,经济系统关联程度越高,经济系统的脆弱性就越大,灾害间接经济影响也越大。已有研究表明,灾害间接经济损失往往与直接经济损失为同一量级,甚至是直接经济损失的数倍。间接经济损失评估是科学评价灾害影响不可或缺的组成部分,其中,产业部门间接经济损失和灾后恢复重建期的评估,可以为灾后恢复重建决策和防灾减灾规划提供有效的决策工具。政府决策者、学术界应重视灾害,特别是重大灾害(或巨灾)对地区经济长期可持续发展可能造成的影响,从而为减轻灾害的影响做好充分准备。
Disaster loss estimation is a basis for managing risks and enacting scientific disaster prevention and miti- gation plans. In addition to direct economic loss, indirect economic loss is an important indicator to reflect the in- tensity of disasters and the socio-economic vulnerability. The more developed the economy, the higher interaction degree within the economic system, the greater vulnerability of the socio-economic system, and the larger indirect impact of the disasters. Indirect economic loss estimation is an indispensible part of disaster impact assessment, in which the estimation of indirect economic loss and recovery reconstruction period of each industrial sector is an im- portant basis for post-disaster reconstruction decision-making and risk management. Government policy makers and academic interests should pay more attention to the possible impact of the greater disasters on the local sustainable development, so as to prepare well for minimizing the adverse effects of the disasters.