中文摘要：

2012年以来，我国苹果汁出口持续、快速下滑。在此背景下，选择我国苹果汁出口第一大国作为研究对象。在了解中美苹果汁贸易特征的基础上，利用Rotterdam模型，研究分析美国对中国苹果汁的进口需求状况，探求中国苹果汁出口贸易波动的原因。实证发现，由于我国出口苹果汁富有支出弹性，出口量受进口国需求状况影响较大，故在进口国经济不景气、消费习惯转变、需求下降的背景下，我国苹果汁出口将出现迅速下滑；此外，在当前其他苹果汁出口国出口价格的变化趋势下，我国出口苹果汁替代品的竞争作用更显著，从而导致我国苹果汁出口受影响产生小幅下滑；我国苹果汁出口价格对出口量影响则不显著。

英文摘要：

The export volume of Chinese apple juice has declined significantly and continuously since 2012.The thesis chose the USA as the research object based on the export volume.Based on the understanding of the characteristics of Sino-US trade in apple juice, the thesis analyzed USA＇ s demand for apple juice with the Rotterdam model, and then explored the reasons for fluctuations in Chinese apple juice export volume.Em- pirical studies showed that export volume was greatly affected by the demand of importing countries due to the rich expenditure elasticity in apple juice.Therefore, the economic downturn, the change of consumption habit and shrinking market in importing countries would result in a rapid decline in export volume.Apart from that, substitutes for apple juice had an even more obvious competitive effect over complements under the price change trend of other export countries.All these factors added up to the slight decline of the export volume of Chinese apple juice ,whose price was not remarkably associated with the exhort volume..