中文摘要：

中国征地冲突的爆发大多是由失地农民的冲突行为引起的，近年来，国内外学者针对失地农民的冲突行为作了诸多有益的探索，但目前尚没有关于失地农民冲突意愿的详细研究。本文以失地农民的冲突意愿为研究对象，结合行为学理论，采用结构方程模型探索社会背景感知、风险感知、利益感知和公平感知这四类心理感知对失地农民冲突意愿的影响作用及相互关系。研究结果显示：①失地农民的社会背景感知对其冲突意愿以及公平感知、利益感知、风险感知的形成有显著的正向影响，表明地方政府违法征地、用地单位强行开发行为等征地背景是失地农民形成冲突意愿和负面感知的重要因素；②失地农民的公平感知对其冲突意愿有显著的负向影响，表明提高失地农民对征地补偿的公平感知是有效缓解失地农民产生冲突意愿的重要途径；③失地农民的利益感知对其冲突意愿有显著的负向影响，表明提高征地过程中失地农民的利益满足感是有效避免失地农民产生冲突意愿的重要手段；④失地农民的风险感知对其冲突意愿有负向影响但不显著，这说明失地农民对于冲突可能带来风险的感知并不会影响其决策行为。本文的研究结果提供了一个新思路，即研究失地农民冲突行为不应局限于农民本身，还应考虑其他利益群体行为对农民个体的影响作用。最后从制度层面提出四点政策建议。

英文摘要：

An outbreak of land expropriation conflict in China has mostly been initiated by the conflict behavior of land-lost peasants. Here, we establish background perception, risk perception, benefit perception, and justice perception dimensions and behavior psychology of these land conflicts. A structural equation model was then applied to explore the influential action of four psychological perceptions of land expropriation conflict and the willingness of land-lost peasants for conflict. Results showed that the background perception of land-lost peasants had a positive impact on land expropriation conflict willingness and the emergence of justice, benefit and risk perception, indicating that background perception is critical. The justice perception of land-lost peasants had a negative impact on land expropriation conflict willingness; benefit perception had a negative impact on land expropriation conflict willingness; and risk perception had the least impact. These results suggest that studies into the conflict behavior of land-lost peasants should not been confined to peasants and should consider other stakeholders and their behavior. Four policy suggestions to avoid and reduce the willingness for land expropriation conflict by land-lost peasants are discussed.