中文摘要：

本文运用中国跨境资本流动财务绩效分析，反思资本项目开放理论和政策的缺陷，认为理论上的资本流动福利效应得不到实证支持，据此制定政策使发展中国家陷入资本项目开放魔咒；基于中国实践提出的有管理可兑换，对发展中国家资本项目开放和资本流动管理具有一般适用性；发展中国家要在资本项目开放国际规则制定中争取主导权，要赋予资本流动管理措施应有的地位。实现人民币资本项目可兑换是既定的目标，但改革进程需要动态优化。

英文摘要：

This paper rethinks the imperfectness of the theories and policies on promoting capital account opening by examining the financial performance of China＇ s cross - border capital flows. We argue .that no empirical evidence would support capital flows＇ welfare effects, and making policies based on this theory might get developing countries into trouble. The policy called managed convertibility which arises from practices in China can be widely applied to developing countries. Developing countries should strive for a greater say in setting international rules of opening capital account, and improve the influence of capital flow management measures. To realize capital account convertibility is China＇ s target, but convertibility reform needs a process of dynamic optimization.