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中文摘要：
为减少旱灾所带来的经济、社会等方面的损失,利用可公度方法和对称性原理对广西壮族自治区的旱灾进行了趋势判断。结果表明：1经三元可公度验证,1950年以来广西的旱灾表现出良好的可公度结构特征,具有明显的时间对称性。2通过可公度方法的分析,结合蝴蝶结构图和可公度结构系,广西2017年发生旱灾的信号较强。3广西旱灾的发生年份与ENSO事件表现出较好的相关性。4结合旱灾年份及太阳黑子数变化趋势的分析,发现旱灾年基本出现在太阳黑子的上升段,即太阳活动逐渐增加的阶段。
英文摘要：
In order to reduce economic and social loss caused by drought disaster,this paper judged the trend of drought in Guangxi based on commensurability and symmetry principle. The results showed： 1The drought disaster in Guangxi showed good commensurability,and time symmetry was very distinct. 2The butterfly structure diagram and commensurability structure system indicated a strong signal of drought disaster occurred in 2017 in Guangxi. 3 ENSO events showed a good correlation with the occurrence of drought disaster. 4 The drought disaster usually appeared in the upward section of sunspots number when the solar activity was in its accelerating stage.
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