利用1°×1°的NECP/NCAR再分析资料、逐3h的TRMM卫星反演降水资料和FY-2E卫星TBB资料以及美国大气和海洋局(NOAA)的HYSPLITv4.8气流三维轨迹扩散模式,诊断分析了2010年5月6~7日广州地区的大暴雨降水过程。结果表明:该大暴雨过程发生在500hPa高空脊前,低空切变线,低涡和锋面是其主要影响系统;生成于广西东北部的MCC东移发展南压到广州地区停滞,直接导致了广州的暴雨发生;在这次暴雨过程中,高层的辐散远大于低层的辐合,高层对低层的抽吸作用可能是该次锋前暖区暴雨的一个触发机制;南海是低层水汽的主要来源地,高层气流从偏西路径影响广州,水汽辐合大值区先于暴雨发生前出现,在暴雨结束前率先有水汽的辐散,水汽的辐合与辐散对预报暴雨有一定的指示意义。
By using NCEP 6-hourly reanalysis data、3-hourly TRMM data、the hourly satellite TBB data、HYSPLIT v4.8 Model,the rainstorm event over Guangzhou during 6-7 May 2010 is analyzed.Results show that:rainstorm is appearing ahead of 500hPa ridge.Surface shear、lower-vortex,front are favorable to the development of the rain-storm system.The stagnation of MCC in Guangzhou which generated in the northeast of Guangxi is the direct reason for severe heavy rainfall.The pumping action of upper-level divergence may be a trigger mechanism of this heavy rain.South China Sea is the main source of low-level water vapor.High-level airflow affects Guangzhou from west.Convergence and divergence of water vapor have an indicative meaning for development of rainstorm.