中文摘要：

当河段实测流量资料存在大的、不服从正态分布的粗差或极值误差时,传统的估计方法（如最小二乘法）将不再适用。将附有条件的抗差最小二乘法运用到闽江流域沙县河段理想模型汇流参数估计中,利用两种常见的误差生成模式,分析比较了最小二乘法和抗差最小二乘法的在这两种误差影响下参数估值的效果和稳定性。结果表明,抗差最小二乘法能有效抵御粗差和极值误差的影响,从而取得较为精确且稳定性好的参数估值。

英文摘要：

When the measured reach flood is seriously influenced by the coarse errors or extreme errors, which have normal distribu- tion characteristics, traditional parameter estimation methods are not applicable. In this paper, the robust estimation with conditions is applied to estimating the Muskingum parameters of the ideal model of Shaxian reach in Minjiang River. Two common error genera- tion models are used to analyze and compare the effectiveness and stability of the least squares method and the robust least squares es timation method. The results show that the robust least squares estimation method can resist the influence of coarse errors effectively and obtain more precise and stable parameter estimates.