针对关键基础设施(CI)依存关系导致的系统级联效应这一问题,在系统化分析网络化CI依存关系建模与仿真的各种方法之上,通过比较各种研究方法的优缺点、适用范围、存在问题,提出采用系统动力学和Multi-Agents混合建模方法,来模拟系统之间的动态关联关系的变化。最后,以一个水资源系统的突发安全事件为例,利用Any-Logic软件对事故所涉及影响到事故系统间的参数进行优化与数值模拟。结果表明:通过该方法优化试验确定事故水系统对其他关联系统的最优供给量,优化该地区的基础设施网络运作能力,同时有效防御系统的级联损失。
This paper addresses a safety issue on critical infrastructure system cascade effects caused by their dependency and interdependency. After systematically summarizing several main methods of modeling and simulation on networked critical infrastructure, a combined methodology of system dynamics model and Multi-Agents simulation technique is proposed firstly. Subsequently, a powerful tool of Any-Logic software is employed to optimize and simulate the cascade effects scenario of water resources system breakdown caused by the interdependence of critical infrastructure. The simulation result demonstrates that this method has an ability to optimize network capacity effectively in this region and reduce losses incurred by cascade effects caused by the interdependence of critical infrastructure efficiently.