中文摘要：

因为人为的海水平上升(SLR ) 的环境、社会经济的影响，理解向更可靠的未来 SLR 设计导致过去和现在的 SLR 的过程是很重要的。与在 Bohai，黄，和华东海(BYECS ) 的格子精炼，一个地区性的海洋将军发行量模型(ROGCM ) 被设置投射由海洋导致的 SLR 在第 21 世纪的动态变化。模型不从冰表并且冰河融化考虑贡献。在模型要求的所有强迫的术语的数据来自社区气候系统模型版本的模拟(CCSM3 ) 3.0 在气候上的国际面板下面变化(IPCC )-A2 情形。模拟结果证明在第 21 世纪的结束，在 BYECS 的海水平将升起大约 0.12 ～ 0.20 m。在 BYECS 的 SLR 被海洋团再分配主要由于海洋在 第21 世纪期间引起太平洋的动态变化，它在太平洋意味着那水趋于搬到 BYECS 的大陆人架，尽管本地位的海水平变化是另一个因素。

英文摘要：

Because of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of anthropogenic sea level rise （SLR）, it is very important to understand the processes leading to past and present SLRs towards more reliable future SLR projections. A regional ocean general circulation model （ROGCM）, with a grid refinement in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas （BYECSs）, was set up to project SLR induced by the ocean dynamic change in the 21st century. The model does not consider the contributions from ice sheets and glacier melting. Data of all forcing terms required in the model came from the simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 （CCSM3） under the International Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）-A2 scenario. Simulation results show that at the end of the 21st century, the sea level in the BYECSs will rise about 0.12 to 0.20 m. The SLR in the BYECSs during the 21st century is mainly caused by the ocean mass redistribution due to the ocean dynamic change of the Pacific Ocean, which means that water in the Pacific Ocean tends to move to the continental shelves of the BYECSs, although the local steric sea level change is another factor.