中文摘要：

研究风电场功率序列之间的相关性对提高风电功率预测精度具有重要意义。首先提出一种判别风电功率序列是否可以采用线性相关系数进行描述的方法;然后引入多种非线性相关系数,对风电功率序列间的相关性进行全面研究和分析,并在常见的Copula函数中选择最优的Copula函数,基于此对其他非线性相关系数进行统一计算。研究结果表明,风电功率序列之间的相关关系并不适合采用线性相关系数描述;而采用非线性相关系数可较好地描述风电功率序列之间的一致性、不一致性以及尾部变化特征。

英文摘要：

It＇s important to research spatial and temporal correlation of wind power sequence to improve the wind power prediction accuracy. In this paper a method is presented to judge whether wind power can be suitably described by the linear correlation coefficient. In order to describe and dig correlation characteristics of wind power sequence, multiple correlation coefficients are introduced. Based on the best Copula function selected from the common Copula functions, other nonlinear correlation coefficients are calculated. Research results show that the correlation between wind power sequences can＇ t be fully described by the linear correlation coefficient. And the changing characters of the wind power can be properly described by the nonlinear correlation coefficients, such as consistency, non-consistency and tail.