中文摘要：

采用FNL再分析资料和美国联合台风警报中心（Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC）资料,运用中尺度WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式,分别使用增长模繁殖法（Breeding of Growing Mode,BGM）和集合卡尔曼变换方法（Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter,ETKF）,对1209号台风＂苏拉＂进行了台风路径的集合预报试验,并对预报效果进行对比分析。结果表明：采用BGM或ETKF初始扰动的集合预报系统,集合平均预报对风场、温度场、位势高度场的预报效果均优于控制预报;ETKF方法的预报改进程度较BGM方法更大,且对风场和温度场预报技巧的优势尤为明显。BGM方法所得到的集合成员离散度小于ETKF方法,对大气真实状态的表征能力不及后者;两种扰动方法的集合平均都明显改善了台风＂苏拉＂的路径预报结果,尤其是控制预报在福建沿海第二次登陆后移速过快的问题,但对台风登陆位置预报的改进不明显;此外,采用ETKF方法的集合平均对台风＂苏拉＂路径预报的改进效果远优于采用BGM方法的集合平均预报。

英文摘要：

Based on the FNL reanalysis data and U. S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center（ JTWC） tropical cyclone data,the WRF（ Weather Research and Forecasting） model is employed to establish the ensemble prediction system for the typhoon Saola（ 1209） based on the initial perturbation methods of Breeding of Growing Mode（ BGM） and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter（ ETKF）,respectively. The ensemble forecasting experiments for the typhoon track are conducted. It is detected that the ensemble mean forecasting results using either BGM or ETKF perform much better than control forecasting results in the aspects ofwind,temperature and geopotential height fields. And the ETKF method is superior to the BGM method,especially in the aspects of wind and temperature fields. Results show that the dispersions of ensemble forecast system using BGM method are smaller than those using ETKF method. The BGM ensemble forecast system has a fairly limited ability to describe the whole atmosphere. Additionally,the ensemble mean track forecasts based on BGM and ETKF are both superior to the control forecast,and well manage the problem of faster speed after the second landfall in Fujian coast for the control forecast. However,for the landfall location,the predictions by means of the two methods are not so satisfactory. In addition,the ETKF method is considerably better than the BGM method in the ensemble track prediction of typhoon Saola.